The fall of the Russian economy will be 3% in 2015, according to the IMF report. This is due to a sharp drop in oil prices and increased geopolitical tensions. The fund significantly worsened its forecast compared to estimates in October 2014: then in Russia, the organization’s experts expected weak growth in 2015 of 0.5%.
The Russian economy in 2015 is expected to fall by 3%. This is stated in the IMF report published on the organization’s website. The full report will be presented today in Beijing.
The drop is due to a sharp drop in oil prices and increased geopolitical tensions, the report says. In 2016, the decline will slow down to 1%. “Oil-exporting countries, for which oil revenues account for a significant portion of tax revenues, are experiencing significant economic shocks,” the report said. At the same time, countries that have accumulated significant reserves in previous years will be able to survive the fall in oil prices more easily, the authors write.
At the same time, the world will experience moderate economic growth from 3.3% in 2014 to 3.5% in 2015 and 3.7% in 2016. Advanced economies are expected to grow by 2.4% in 2015 and 2016. Developing economies will grow by 4.3% in 2015 and 4.7% in 2016. The modest figures were influenced by three factors, among which the IMF indicates a weak economic situation in Russia, a decrease in growth for commodity-exporting countries. The key factor was the slowdown in China’s economy.
The country’s economy in the fourth quarter of 2014 grew by 7.3% compared to the same period in 2013. Overall growth in 2014 was 7.4%, the National Bureau of Statistics of China reported today. This is the lowest annual growth in the last 24 years.
In a previously published report, the IMF predicted weak economic growth in Russia. In 2015, it was supposed to be 0.5%. The decline in Russia and neighboring countries was driven by weak domestic demand and rising geopolitical tensions, the report said.
In mid-January, the head of the Russian representative office of the International Monetary Fund, Bikas Joshi, said that the measures taken by the government and the Central Bank helped stabilize the ruble exchange rate. “The period of sharp jumps in the ruble is coming to an end. The measures taken are beginning to work – this is an increase in the key rate, and support for the banking system, and the provision of foreign exchange liquidity to market participants. All this supports the ruble and, probably, will support it in the future, “he said.
For Russia, the fall in oil prices poses serious risks, said Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, in early December. The change in oil prices adds vulnerability to the Russian economy, and Moscow is well aware of this. “It remains to be seen how Russia will react to this situation,” she said. According to her, not only Russia, but also other countries that depend on energy exports – the states of the Middle East, Venezuela and some African countries – will have to change the budget parameters.
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