Below is a list of the most important indicators, mainly used in the US economy. But there are also other leading economies, such as the UK, Germany, Japan, etc. The publication of indicators of these indicators significantly affects the movement of currency pairs. But not only the numerical value of the indicator is important, but also the ratio between the expected and actual figures in the market.
Please note: the time on the platform is set in Greenwich Mean Time, GMT+0 (for the convenience of counting the time in different regions). Accordingly, the time of publication of reports is given below in GMT format.
All news on currencies for the current day are displayed in the Financial Calendar.
List of indicators:
CCI – Consumer Confidence Index — Доверие потребителей CB
It is published on the last Tuesday of each month at 14:00 GMT, covers the data of the present month.
The consumer confidence index measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. To calculate the index, data from a survey of about 5,000 households are taken. When the government guarantees us more jobs, higher wages, and lower interest rates, our confidence and purchasing power increase. Respondents answer questions about their income, assessment of the state of the market and the possibility of increasing their financial well-being. The Federal Reserve takes this indicator into account when setting interest rates. This index is considered an important engine of the market, because Private consumption accounts for two-thirds of the U.S. economy. The growth of the index value is a positive factor for the development of the national economy and leads to the growth of the national currency.
CPI – Consumer Price Index (CPI)
The Consumer Price Index is a basic index created to measure the average level of prices for goods and services (consumer basket) for a certain period in the economy, usually monthly (not including taxes). This is a key way to measure changes in buying and inflation trends. An increase in the CPI indicates inflation.
Core-CPI – The US CPI (consumer price index excluding food and energy, spending that depends on seasonal fluctuations) provides a more accurate measurement of the total price. It is published approximately by the 20th of each month at 13:30 GMT. This index is widely used in the economy and is considered an important market engine.
Unemployment Rate
Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on the first Friday of each month at 13:30 GMT, covers data from the previous month.
The unemployment rate determines the percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed but actively looking for work and willing to work in the U.S. The Unemployment Report is the first part of the U.S. Employment Situation Report. The second part of the report refers to the length of the working week and the average hourly wage.
FOMC Meeting (Interest Rate Decision)
Interest rate announcement.
The meeting of representatives of the Federal Bank of the United States is held 8 times a year. The interest rate decision is published during each meeting (around 19:15 GMT).
The Fed (US Federal Reserve) is responsible for managing US monetary policy. This system supervises banks, provides services to government organizations and citizens, and maintains financial stability in the country.
In the United States, there are 12 authorized regions (each of which includes several states) represented on the Fed committee.
The interest rate of currencies is practically the price of money. The higher the interest rate on a currency, the more people will seek to hold on to that currency in order to buy it and thus strengthen the currency. This is a very important indicator that affects the level of inflation and is a serious driver of the market.
GDP – Gross Domestic Product – Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
GDP is a gross measure of market activity. It represents the monetary value of all goods and services produced in the economy over a given period. This includes consumption, government procurement, investment, and trade balance. GDP is perhaps the most important indicator of a country’s economic health. It is usually measured on an annual basis, but there are also quarterly statistics. The quarterly dynamics of GDP percentages shows the growth rate of the economy as a whole.
The U.S. Department of Commerce publishes GDP in 3 modes: initial, preliminary, final. The release of the “Initial Report” appears on the last day of each quarter. A month is followed by a “Preliminary Report” followed by a “Final Report” issued a month later. The most recent GDP data is of relatively high importance to the markets. GDP shows the rate at which a country’s economy is growing (or decreasing). The US GDP report is released on the last day of the quarter at 13:30 GMT, covering data from the previous quarter.
ISM Manufacturing Index
The report is released on the first working day of the month at 15:00 GMT, covering the data of the previous month.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Activity Index is the result of a monthly survey of more than 400 companies across 20 industries in 50 states. This data is considered a very important and reliable economic indicator. If the index has a value below 50, due to a decrease in activity, it indicates an economic downturn, especially if the trend continues for several months. A reading well above 50 probably indicates a period of economic growth.
MCSI (Michigan Consumer Confidence Index) is the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index.
Issued by the University of Michigan on the first day of each month, covers data from the previous month.
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator that predicts consumer spending, which is part of economic activity.
The data is taken from a survey of about 500 consumers. Higher readings indicate consumer optimism.
NFP (Changes in non-farm payrolls) – Change in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector
Published by the Department of Labor on the first Friday of each month at 15:30 GMT, covers data from the previous month.
The data reflects changes in the total number of paid jobs in the United States in any area of business, with the exception of:
- Civil servants;
- Employees of private households;
- Employees of non-profit organizations that provide assistance to individuals;
- Farm workers.
The non-agricultural sector accounts for approximately 80% of total employment. It produces the entire gross domestic product of the United States. With its help, politicians and economists determine the current state of the economy and predict the future level of economic activity. This is a serious market engine, mainly due to large deviations in forecasting.
Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) – Индекс производственной активности PMI
Published on the first working day of each month at 15:00 GMT, covers data from the previous month.
PMI is an index based on five main indicators: new orders, inventories, production, supplies, and environmental employment. The Association of Purchasing Managers surveys more than 300 purchasing managers across the country who represent 20 different industries. A PMI above 50 indicates an expansion in manufacturing, while a reading below 50 indicates that industry is contracting.
The PMI report is an extremely important indicator for financial markets, as it is the best indicator of factory production. This index is popular for identifying inflationary pressures as well as the state of factory production. PMI is not as important as CPI (Consumer Price Index) in detecting inflation, but since it is published at the very beginning of the month, it is quite relevant. If the PMI indicates unexpected changes, it is usually accompanied by a quick reaction in the market. One of the key points of the report is the growth of new orders, which predicts production activity in the coming months.
Retail Sales Data
Released by the Census Bureau around the 12th of each month from 13:30 GMT, covers data from the previous month.
Retail sales are a key driver of the U.S. economy. This indicator tracks the goods that are sold by companies in the retail trade and determines the total consumer spending in this area (not including service costs). Retail revenues make up the majority (two-thirds) of the U.S. economy. The Census Bureau surveys hundreds of retailers of various sizes. The monthly data shows the percentage change compared to the previous month. A negative number means that sales have decreased. This indicator is a very important market engine, as it is used as an indicator of consumer activity, as an increase in sales figures will mean an increase in economic activity.
Tankan Large Manufacturers Index – Индекс производственной конъюнктуры Tankan
It is published by the Central Bank of Japan four times a year – in April, July, October and mid-December at 23:50 GMT.
The Tankan Manufacturing Index measures the overall business environment among major manufacturers. The information is based on a survey of 1200 major manufacturers in Japan, who were asked about the conditions of their business. This is a key indicator of the Japanese economy, which relies heavily on the manufacturing industry. Above 0 indicates improved conditions, while below 0 indicates worsening conditions. This index is considered an important engine of the JPY currency pairs market.
TIC Net Long-Term Transactions – Volume of purchases of long-term TIC securities
Published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, by the 12th of each month at 14:00 GMT, covers data for the previous month.
TIC Long-Term Securities Purchase Volume measures the difference in the value of purchases of U.S. long-term foreign securities and foreign purchases of U.S. long-term securities on a monthly basis. TIC flows are a key resource for the U.S. government to offset trade deficits, which can provide a good reflection of demand for the U.S. dollar.
Trade Balance
Published by the Department of Commerce in the second week of each month.
The Trade Balance Index measures the difference in the sum of exported and imported goods (exports minus imports). It is the largest component of the country’s payments balance. Affects the movement of the country’s currency.
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